Is HDB Resale Housing Really Less Affordable Today?
- May 12
- 10 min read
Updated: May 13
What the data says when we move beyond rhetoric
Few topics in Singapore generate as much emotion as housing.
For good reason.
A home is likely to be the largest purchase most Singaporean households will ever make. When resale flat prices rise, people feel it. When headlines highlight million-dollar flats, people notice. When younger households compare today’s prices with what their parents paid decades ago, the conclusion can feel obvious:
“Public housing is no longer as affordable as before.”
But is that actually true?
As with many important public issues, the answer depends on what we mean, what data we use, and how we define the question.
This is where data becomes useful. Not because data removes emotion from the discussion, but because it helps us separate what feels true from what is broadly true.
Starting with the right question
Before collecting data, we first need to clarify what we are trying to measure.
HDB’s mission is not to provide cheap housing, nor premium housing, but to “provide affordable, quality housing and a great living environment where communities thrive.” Source: HDB, Our Story: https://www.hdb.gov.sg/about-us/our-story
That word — affordable — matters.
Affordable does not mean prices never rise.Affordable does not mean every flat in every location should be within reach of every household.Affordable does not mean a premium flat in a highly desirable location should cost the same as a typical flat.
Affordable means that, at a broad level, typical housing remains reasonably within reach of typical households.
So for this analysis, we define affordability as:
Median resale flat price divided by median annual household income.
More specifically, we compare the median resale price of 3-room and 4-room HDB flats, which are among the most common flat types, against median household income annualised by multiplying monthly household income by 13 months (assumes this inlcudes the 13 month annual wage supplement)
This is not a perfect measure, but it is a useful starting point.
Why definitions matter
A common mistake in public discussions is to compare today’s home prices with past home prices in dollar terms only.
For example, one might say:
“A 4-room resale flat used to cost around S$250,000. Today, it can cost S$600,000 or more.”
That statement may be factually correct. But on its own, it is incomplete.
If incomes have also risen significantly over the same period, then price growth alone does not tell us whether housing has become less affordable.
That is why we should not ask only:
“Have HDB resale prices gone up?”
Clearly, they have.
The better question is:
“Have HDB resale prices gone up faster than household incomes?”
That is a more useful question for policy, planning, and public understanding.
The data used
For resale prices, the analysis uses HDB resale transaction data from data.gov.sg. The dataset provides detailed HDB resale transaction records from 1990 onwards. For earlier years, the data is based on the approval date of resale transactions; from March 2012 onwards, it is based on the registration date.
Source: data.gov.sg, Resale Flat Prices: https://data.gov.sg/datasets?agencies=Housing+%26+Development+Board+%28HDB%29&resultId=189
For household income, the analysis uses median monthly household income data from the Singapore Department of Statistics / SingStat, including employer CPF contributions where available.
Source: SingStat Table Builder, Average and Median Monthly Household Employment Income Among Resident and Resident Employed Households: https://www.tablebuilder.singstat.gov.sg/table/CT/17870
HDB’s resale market itself is not new. In 1971, HDB flat owners were allowed to sell their flats on the open market after meeting a minimum occupation period of three years.
Source: HDB, Our History: https://www.hdb.gov.sg/about-us/our-story/our-history
However, detailed public transaction data from data.gov.sg is available from 1990 onwards, which is why this analysis starts from 1990.
What the data shows
At first glance, the price increase is striking.
Based on the data collated, the median resale price of a 3-room HDB flat rose from around S$43,000 in 1990 to around S$445,000 in 2025.
For 4-room flats, the median resale price rose from around S$80,000 in 1990 to around S$630,000 in 2025.
In dollar terms, that is a huge increase.
But median household income also rose over the same period.
When we express resale prices as a multiple of median annual household income, the story becomes more nuanced.
For 3-room flats, the median resale price in recent years has generally been around 3 to 4 years of median household income.
For 4-room flats, the ratio has generally been around 4 to 5 years of median household income over the past two decades.
This does not mean flats feel cheap. They do not.
But it does suggest that, for median-priced 3-room and 4-room resale flats, affordability has been more stable than public rhetoric might suggest.
1997 was worse than today on this measure
One of the most interesting findings is that HDB resale flats were significantly less affordable by this measure in the late 1990s.
In 1997, based on the data collated:
Year | 3-room resale flat | 4-room resale flat |
1997 | 4.15 years of median household income | 6.49 years of median household income |
2025 | 3.39 years of median household income | 4.80 years of median household income |
In other words, by this simple affordability measure, median resale flats were more expensive relative to median household incomes in 1997 than in 2025.
This is a useful reminder that housing anxiety is not new.
It also highlights why housing policy cannot be assessed using emotion alone. Market cycles, income growth, supply, demand, interest rates, government interventions, grants, location preferences, and household expectations all matter.
But median numbers do not tell the whole story
Of course, some readers may rightly ask:
“Doesn’t this only show that median-income households can afford median-priced flats?”
Yes.
And that is an important limitation.
Median figures are useful for broad policy review, but they do not describe every household’s reality.
A median household is not the same as a lower-income household. A median-priced flat is not the same as a flat in every location. A national figure does not capture the lived experience of a young couple with limited savings, a single-income family, or a household with unstable employment.
This is why we should not stop at the median.
The median gives us the broad picture.The next step is to examine who may still be under pressure.
Fortunately, more recent data provides more granularity. While the long-term data from 1990 is limited, recent household income data allows us to examine different income deciles.
That helps us ask a sharper question:
If median households can broadly afford median-priced 3-room and 4-room resale flats, what about lower-income households?
What the income decile data shows
The more granular data tells a more complete story.
For a median-priced 3-room resale flat, the data suggests that in 2025:
Household income group | Years of income needed |
20th percentile household | about 7.9 years |
30th percentile household | about 5.0 years |
40th percentile household | about 3.5 years |
For a median-priced 4-room resale flat, the data suggests that in 2025:
Household income group | Years of income needed |
20th percentile household | about 11.1 years |
30th percentile household | about 7.1 years |
40th percentile household | about 5.0 years |
This makes one thing clear.
Lower-income households will naturally find resale flats more challenging to afford than median-income households.
That should not surprise us.
But the more important point is this: based on the data over the past 10 years, these ratios appear to have remained broadly stable.
In other words, for these lower-income groups, resale flats may still require a significant number of years of income. But the number of years has not clearly worsened over the last decade, because incomes have also risen alongside resale flat prices.
This is a more balanced insight.
It does not dismiss the affordability challenge. It also does not exaggerate it.
It tells us that lower-income households face greater affordability pressure, but that this pressure has not necessarily worsened significantly in recent years when measured by this income-to-price ratio.
This is where better policy questions begin
This is precisely why data matters.
If we only look at the median, we may conclude:
“HDB resale flats remain broadly affordable.”
That is useful, but incomplete.
If we look at income deciles, we can say something more precise:
“Median-priced resale flats remain broadly affordable for median-income households, but lower-income households face greater affordability pressure, especially for 4-room flats. However, this pressure appears to have remained relatively stable over the past decade.”
That is a much better policy conversation.
It moves us away from sweeping claims and towards targeted questions.
For example:
Should lower-income households be expected to buy median-priced resale flats?
Should they be guided towards lower-priced resale flats instead?
How much support should come through grants?
How should grants vary by income group, family type, and flat type?
Are certain towns or flat segments becoming increasingly out of reach?
Should the policy focus be on broad affordability, or on specific groups facing greater pressure?
These are more useful questions because they lead to more targeted decisions.
Lower-income households may not buy the median flat
There is another important point.
The analysis compares lower-income households against median-priced resale flats.
But in real life, lower-income households may not necessarily buy the median-priced flat.
They may choose smaller flats, older flats, flats in non-mature estates, or units with lower resale prices. They may also qualify for housing grants, which reduce the effective cost of purchase.
This matters because affordability is not only about the headline resale price. It is also affected by grants, loan eligibility, CPF balances, mortgage rates, remaining lease, household size, and location choices.
So the decile analysis should not be read as saying:
“Lower-income households cannot afford resale flats.”
It says something more specific:
“Lower-income households would need more years of income to purchase a median-priced resale flat, especially a 4-room flat, but this relative burden has remained broadly stable in recent years.”
That is an important distinction.
Why it still feels expensive
If the data suggests resale affordability has remained broadly stable, why does housing still feel so expensive?
There are several reasons.
First, housing is a very large purchase. Even if a flat costs “only” four to five years of annual household income, the absolute dollar amount is still significant. A S$600,000 flat feels very different from a S$250,000 flat, even if incomes have risen.
Second, buyers do not experience affordability as a national median. They experience it through their own income, savings, family support, loan eligibility, location needs, and life stage.
Third, resale buyers are not choosing from a theoretical median flat. They are choosing from actual listings. If they want a newer flat, near an MRT station, in a mature estate, close to parents, near schools, or in a highly desirable town, the price may be far above the median.
Fourth, public attention often focuses on extreme cases. Million-dollar HDB transactions are real, but they are not representative of the typical HDB resale flat. They are important signals, but they should not be mistaken for the whole market.
This is where facts and feelings diverge.
The feeling that housing is expensive is valid.
But the claim that public housing is less affordable across the board needs to be tested.
Premium choices are not the same as broad affordability
A household may find a particular resale flat unaffordable.
That is real.
But it does not automatically mean HDB resale housing is unaffordable as a whole.
A premium flat in a popular location may be unaffordable to a median-income household. But that is different from saying that median-priced resale flats are unaffordable to median-income households.
This distinction matters for public policy.
If we confuse premium-market frustration with broad-market affordability, we may end up solving the wrong problem.
The policy question should not be:
“Can every household afford every flat they want?”
A more practical question is:
“Can typical households still afford typical homes?”
Based on this analysis, the answer appears to be: broadly, yes — at least when looking at median-priced 3-room and 4-room resale flats against median household income.
What this analysis does not claim
This analysis is not saying that housing affordability is no longer an issue.
It is also not saying every household is doing fine.
It does not account for differences by age group, income group, household type, estate, remaining lease, family size, grants, mortgage rates, loan rules, CPF usage, or wealth inequality.
It also does not compare resale flats with new BTO flats, which are subsidised differently and serve a different policy role.
Most importantly, it does not tell us whether housing feels financially comfortable.
Affordability is not only a mathematical ratio. It is also shaped by job security, family responsibilities, expectations, debt burden, and confidence about the future.
But the analysis does show that one popular claim — that HDB resale housing is clearly less affordable today than in the past — needs to be treated with care.
Why data matters for better public conversations
This is the real value of data.
Data does not end the debate. Data improves the debate.
Without data, public conversations are often driven by the loudest anecdotes, the most emotional headlines, or the most extreme examples.
With data, we can ask better questions:
Are prices rising?Yes.
Are prices rising faster than incomes?Not always.
Are premium flats becoming more expensive?Very likely.
Does that mean the entire resale market is unaffordable?Not necessarily.
Do some groups still face real affordability stress?Almost certainly.
These are more useful questions because they lead to better decisions.
For individuals, data helps households make more informed choices about what they can afford.
For policymakers, data helps separate broad affordability issues from specific market pressures.
For society, data helps us move from rhetoric to reason.
The conclusion
HDB resale prices have risen significantly. That is undeniable.
But incomes have also risen.
When median resale prices for 3-room and 4-room flats are compared against median annual household income, the data suggests that resale affordability has been relatively stable over the past two decades — and in some earlier periods, especially around 1997, resale flats were less affordable than they are today by this measure.
This does not mean housing is cheap.
It does not mean every flat is affordable.
It does not mean every household feels secure.
But it does mean we should be careful with sweeping claims.
The data suggests a more balanced conclusion:
HDB resale flats have become much more expensive in dollar terms, but median-priced 3-room and 4-room resale flats do not appear to be less affordable today than they were around 25 years ago, when measured against median household income.
That is the power of data.
It helps us pause before accepting popular assumptions.
It helps us distinguish between what feels true and what is broadly supported by evidence.
And most importantly, it helps us make better decisions — as households, as organisations, and as a society.
Explore the data for yourself
One of the most powerful aspects of analytics is that you do not have to take the conclusion at face value.
You can inspect the data, test the assumptions, and decide whether the evidence supports the story.
In this article, we have used median HDB resale prices and median household income to examine whether HDB resale flats have become less affordable over time. But the real value is not just in the conclusion. It is in the process.
So we encourage you to explore the underlying data for yourself.
Click on the source links to review the original datasets. Click on the charts to access the interactive dashboards. Change the years, compare flat types, and examine how prices and incomes have moved over time.
You may agree with our interpretation. You may spot other patterns. You may ask better follow-up questions.
That is the point.
Good data analysis should not ask readers to simply believe a claim. It should invite them to examine the evidence.
If you would like to build the skills to conduct similar analyses, challenge assumptions more objectively, or tell clearer data stories, join us in one of our FYT Consulting workshops.
Our workshops are designed to help professionals build practical data analytics, data storytelling, and critical thinking skills that they can apply directly at work — even if they do not come from a technical background.
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Because better decisions start with better questions — and better questions start with the courage to examine the data.
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